黑色金属日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆★ [1] - Hot-rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is influenced by "anti-involution", with low-positioned industrial products remaining strong, but the actual implementation of policies is yet to be seen, and the rhythm may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with steel products, and the risk of increased volatility should be noted [3]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by the "anti-involution" to a limited extent, and their prices mainly follow the trend of steel products [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices follow the trend of thread, with limited ability to rise and are expected to face pressure [7][8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. This week, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. The demand for hot-rolled steel increased slightly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased. The molten iron production is slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. With low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. Attention should be paid to the demand absorption capacity during the off-season [2]. - In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain at a relatively high level [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume is currently high but may decline in the future. Port inventory continues to decline slightly without significant pressure to accumulate [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak during the off-season, but steel mills are still profitable and have little incentive to cut production actively. Molten iron production can remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The uncertainty of overseas trade has decreased, and the market expects the introduction of domestic policies, with optimistic sentiment [3]. Coke - Today's coke futures declined. The first round of price increases in the coking industry has been fully implemented, but the increase is smaller than expected, and profits are meager. Coke production has been declining, and overall inventory has hardly changed. Traders' purchasing willingness has increased [4]. Coking Coal - Today's coking coal futures declined. Environmental inspections in Wuhai have tightened, affecting coal transportation. The production of coking coal mines continues to increase, and the spot auction market has improved, with transaction prices rising significantly and terminal inventory increasing [6]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased, and production-side inventory has decreased significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - Today's silicon manganese futures declined. Due to continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase, and on-book inventory has started to rise. In the long term, manganese ore inventory is increasing, and in the short term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines are more willing to hold prices [7]. Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon futures declined. Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 239. A large northern steel mill's July ferrosilicon tender inquiry price is 5400 yuan/ton, and the June price was 5500 yuan/ton. The July tender quantity is 2700 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous round. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [8]. - The supply of ferrosilicon continues to decline, market transactions are average, on-book inventory continues to decrease, but production-side inventory has begun to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [8].