国投期货能源日报-20250717

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, representing a bias towards an upward trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices may turn into a volatile and pressured state in July, but there is still a possibility of rising again in August. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is declining. Asphalt prices are supported by low inventories, and the LPG market is in a weak state with a downward - trending disk [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SG08 contract falling 0.12% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, but the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories raised demand concerns. Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations, but recently, the spot premium and monthly spread of crude oil have not strengthened further. In July, the negative impact of the trade war on oil prices is greater than the positive impact of geopolitical factors. In August, if the European diesel contradiction persists, the market may rise again [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel - related futures are all weak, with LU falling more deeply. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has started to decline since mid - July. Under the OPEC+ production - increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual incremental effect of the previous pilot project of increasing the deduction ratio of fuel oil consumption tax in China is limited, and demand lacks drivers. FU cracking is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil [2] Asphalt - Social inventories have slightly increased, while factory inventories have significantly decreased month - on - month, mainly driven by accelerated inventory reduction in East China. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has slightly increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed, demand is still weak but there is a repair expectation, and low inventories still support prices. Today, crude oil has slightly declined, while BU has slightly increased, and cracking has also strengthened [3] LPG - The production - increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be weak and volatile. Recently, import costs have continued to decline, but the weak prices of terminal products have kept PDH gross profit stable. PDH has continued to add maintenance, and the domestic supply and demand are both weak recently, with the domestic gas price facing downward pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the off - season pattern in summer remains unchanged, with the disk trend being weak and volatile [4]