Changjiang Securities·2025-07-17 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's coal-fired power generation volume decreased by 3.46% year-on-year in Q2, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to Q1. Gas-fired power generation increased by 9.16% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price in Q2 was 0.482 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.017 yuan/kWh year-on-year. The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal fell by 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year, which will effectively alleviate the pressure from the decline in volume and price, leading to an expected improvement in coal-fired power performance in Q2. The rapid growth of renewable energy generation, driven by continuous capacity expansion, is also a positive factor for the company's performance outlook [2][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, the company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 99.049 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%. However, the total on-grid electricity volume for the first half of 2025 was 205.683 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year. The average on-grid settlement price for the first half of 2025 was 485.27 yuan/MWh, down 2.69% year-on-year [6]. Cost and Pricing Analysis - The overall coal price has shown a downward trend in 2025, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 yuan/ton in Q2, down 216.84 yuan/ton year-on-year. This significant reduction in costs is expected to alleviate the pressure from declining volume and price, leading to an improvement in the company's coal-fired power performance [12][12]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company added 1.0248 million kW of wind power and 2.8028 million kW of solar power in Q2 2025. By the end of June 2025, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 20.04 million kW and 24.17 million kW, representing year-on-year growth of 21.31% and 60.18%, respectively. The rapid growth in renewable energy generation is anticipated to support stable performance in the company's renewable energy business [12][12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.02, 8.40, and 7.79 [12].