Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expected by the market has failed to materialize. The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are weak, but the market sentiment is positive before the Politburo meeting, leading to an increase in futures prices. The market still needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for product prices [3]. - In the short term, the prices of various varieties are more influenced by emotions and expectations. The current market is a capital behavior under the improvement of the macro - environment. It is difficult to determine whether the prices have reached the short - term peak. Speculators are advised to treat the current market rationally, while industrial players can consider hedging operations according to their own situations [10][15]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - Price and Position Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,181 lots in the main contract position. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,292 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (1.198%), with an increase of 60,284 lots in the main contract position. In the spot market, the rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3,180 yuan/ton and 3,220 yuan/ton respectively, with Shanghai's price increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3,330 yuan/ton and 3,320 yuan/ton respectively, both increasing by 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: For rebar, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory increased slightly; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest levels in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Information: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, up 1.62% (12.50), with an increase of 12,867 lots in the position, changing to 703,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1,155,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.31 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.72% [5]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation: Overseas iron ore shipments remained stable, with a decline in Australian shipments due to port maintenance, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in shipments from non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output was 242,440 tons, an increase of 2,630 tons. Port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Position Information: On July 17, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed at 5,794 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed at 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 96 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5,470 yuan/ton, with a discount of 12 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. - Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Manganese silicon is still in a volatile rebound, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. Ferrosilicon shows a wide - range volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5,600 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. Fundamentally, the industry pattern is over - supplied, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is still room for cost reduction [9]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Position Information: On July 17, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8,950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 205 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the futures [14]. - Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Industrial silicon has broken away from the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound trend continues. Fundamentally, it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 216,300 heavy boxes (3.22%) to 64.939 million heavy boxes, and the inventory days decreased by 1.0 day to 27.9 days. The supply is stable, demand has certain resilience, and the cost support is strengthened. The short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong, and short positions should be avoided in the medium term [17]. - Soda Ash: The spot price increased by 15 yuan to 1,210 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 21,600 tons (1.15%) to 1.9056 million tons. The demand is still sluggish, the supply is loose in the medium term, and the inventory pressure continues to increase. It rebounds in the short term due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to be weak in the medium term [18].
黑色建材日报-20250718
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-18 00:38