全球增产预期强烈，原糖震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - For cotton, most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - From July 16 to July 17, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.21% from 16.55 to 16.75 US dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.41% from 68.56 to 68.84 US dollars. The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, while the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.54% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.65% from 15300 to 15200 [3] - The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all showed varying degrees of increase, with CF05 - 09 and CF09 - 01 having relatively large increases of 109.68% and 132.00% respectively. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts generally decreased [3] Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.3 from July 16 to July 17, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged at 1579 [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0713, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.31. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0737. The implied volatility of CF509C14200 is 0.1274, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.16. The implied volatility of CF509P14200 is 0.1287 [3] - From July 16 to July 17, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.94% from 22289 to 21857, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.60% from 9643 to 9585 [3] Company Introduction - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specialized in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]