Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - Core Logic: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - Core Logic: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - Core Logic: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250718
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-18 01:14