宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250718

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market shows a short - term upward trend, with a mid - term and intraday tendency of strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. However, considering that the valuation has reached a high level, there is a need to guard against the shift of the trading logic to the industrial side [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety View - For the iron ore 2509 variety, the short - term outlook is upward, the mid - term and intraday outlooks are strongly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have improved, and the ore price will continue to be strong. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is favorable. After the end of inspections, steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased again. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the demand for ore is resilient, providing strong support for the ore price. - Although the port arrivals have increased significantly, the miners' shipments are weak. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will decline, resulting in a decrease in overseas ore supply. Domestic ore production is stable, and the supply will contract in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the iron ore fundamentals have improved, and the industrial pattern is relatively good. Policy expectations have boosted market sentiment, supporting the high - level and strong operation of the ore price [3].