Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, overseas focus is on the impact of US tariffs on various countries, while domestically, attention is on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the impact of the stock - bond seesaw [5]. - Regarding precious metals, the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive up the prices of gold and silver, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different price trends. For example, copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound, aluminum prices will follow the commodity atmosphere, zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, etc. [9][10][11]. - In the black building materials market, the prices of finished products are oscillating strongly. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand repair rhythm, and cost support [23]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish, while crude oil is recommended to be observed for risk control [37][39]. - In the agricultural products market, different products also have different trends. For example, for pork, short - term long positions may have space, while for eggs, a strategy of waiting for a rebound to short is recommended [52][53]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - Macro News: The starting price of the super - luxury car consumption tax is adjusted to 900,000 yuan; Guangzhou Futures Exchange implements trading limits on polysilicon futures; Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japan; US import prices and retail sales data show different trends [2]. - Basis Ratio: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - Trading Logic: Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, focus on the July "Central Political Bureau Meeting". It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market Quotes: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS showed different price changes [4]. - News: US retail sales and initial jobless claims data are released; the central bank conducts 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Precious Metals - Market Quotes: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver show different trends; the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index are provided [6]. - Market Outlook: US retail sales data is affected by price factors, and the dovish attitude of the Fed supports the price of silver. It is recommended to go long on silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Quotes: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices rise; LME inventory increases, and domestic social inventory decreases [9]. - Analysis: The commodity atmosphere supports copper prices, but the expectation of US copper tariffs brings risks. The raw material shortage situation is weakening, and the rebound strength is expected to be weak [9]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices rise; domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases, and LME inventory increases [10]. - Analysis: The domestic commodity atmosphere is positive, but the overseas trade situation is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and prices will follow the commodity atmosphere [10]. Zinc - Market Quotes: Shanghai zinc index rises, and LME zinc falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [11]. - Analysis: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish, and in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [11]. Lead - Market Quotes: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [12]. - Analysis: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is slightly weak. Domestic lead prices are expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Market Quotes: Nickel prices oscillate; the price of nickel iron falls, and the price of nickel ore weakens [13][14][15]. - Analysis: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - Market Quotes: Tin prices oscillate; the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the actual output needs time [16]. - Analysis: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Quotes: The price of lithium carbonate rises; production increases, and inventory increases slightly [17]. - Analysis: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to industry information and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - Market Quotes: The alumina index falls; spot prices in different regions show different trends; the import window is closed [18]. - Analysis: The price of bauxite is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains. It is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The price of stainless steel rises; social inventory decreases slightly, but the inventory of some varieties is still high [19]. - Analysis: Affected by policies and demand, stainless steel prices are expected to rise slightly [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The price of casting aluminum alloy rises slightly; inventory increases slightly [20]. - Analysis: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The cost support is strengthened, but the price increase is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Quotes: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise; the inventory of rebar accumulates slightly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreases [22][23]. - Analysis: The market atmosphere is positive, but the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. It is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes: The price of iron ore rises; the supply and demand situation changes, and the port inventory increases slightly [24][25]. - Analysis: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and macro - economic factors [25]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The price of glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to be weak in the medium - term [26][27]. - Analysis: The supply of glass is stable, and the demand is resilient; the supply of soda ash is loose, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rise; the price trends are affected by market sentiment [28]. - Analysis: The fundamental situation is still bearish, but in the short - term, the market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The price of industrial silicon rises slightly; the supply is excessive, and the demand is insufficient [32]. - Analysis: In the short - term, the price is affected by sentiment. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging operations [32][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU prices rise; the开工 rate of tire enterprises changes, and the inventory situation is different [37]. - Analysis: Rubber prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to go long in the medium - term and be neutral - long in the short - term [37][38]. Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rise, and INE crude oil prices fall; the inventory of refined oil products changes [39]. - Analysis: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to observe and control risks [39]. Methanol - Market Quotes: The price of methanol rises; the upstream and downstream situations change [40]. - Analysis: The market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Quotes: The price of urea rises; the supply and demand situation is acceptable [41]. - Analysis: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [41]. Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price of styrene rises, and the futures price falls; the BZN spread is expected to repair [42]. - Analysis: The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side [42]. PVC - Market Quotes: The price of PVC rises; the supply is strong, and the demand is weak [44]. - Analysis: The market is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the future [44]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The price of ethylene glycol rises; the supply and demand situation changes [45]. - Analysis: In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but the fundamental situation is weak [45]. PTA - Market Quotes: The price of PTA rises; the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure [46]. - Analysis: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX on dips [46]. p - Xylene - Market Quotes: The price of p - xylene rises; the supply and demand situation changes [47][48]. - Analysis: In the third quarter, p - xylene is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips following the price of crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Quotes: The futures price of PE rises, and the现货 price falls; the inventory and demand situation changes [49]. - Analysis: The price of PE is expected to oscillate downward [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Quotes: The futures price of PP rises, and the现货 price falls; the supply and demand situation is weak [50]. - Analysis: The price of PP is expected to be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Quotes: The price of hogs falls; the short - term supply decreases seasonally, but there is pressure in the medium - term [52]. - Analysis: Short - term long positions may have space, but attention should be paid to supply delay and hedging pressure [52]. Eggs - Market Quotes: The price of eggs rises; the supply is large, and the short - term rebound space is limited [53]. - Analysis: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [53]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Quotes: The price of US soybeans rebounds; the price of domestic soybean meal rises [54]. - Analysis: The soybean market is long - short intertwined. It is recommended to go long on dips and wait for new driving factors [54][55]. Oils - Market Quotes: The price of palm oil rises; the export and production situation of palm oil changes [56][57]. - Analysis: The price of oils is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and production [58][59]. Sugar - Market Quotes: The price of sugar rises; the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year [60]. - Analysis: The price of sugar is expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [60]. Cotton - Market Quotes: The price of cotton rises; the export situation of textiles and clothing changes [61]. - Analysis: The price of cotton has rebounded, but there are potential negative factors [61].
五矿期货文字早评-20250718
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-18 01:09