Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is "oscillation." The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2509 are "oscillation," and the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak." For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," and the medium - term view is "oscillation" [1][5]. - The monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, due to the overall resilience of the economy in the first half of the year, the policy may be implemented at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. With the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is also limited. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term trend is "oscillation," the medium - term trend is "oscillation," the intraday trend is "oscillation - weak," and the overall view is "oscillation." The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards loosening, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation - weak," the medium - term view is "oscillation," and the reference view is "oscillation." The core logic is that Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, due to insufficient effective demand in the domestic demand side, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts. But because of the economic resilience in the first half of the year, the policy implementation node may be at the end of the third quarter or in the fourth quarter, so the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts is low. Meanwhile, with the central bank's net injection of liquidity and the market interest rate approaching the policy rate, the upward space for interest rates is limited. Therefore, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5].
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250718
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-18 01:08