生猪：等待旺季兑现

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The incremental supply of the underlying market is limited, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. After the spot market digests the mid - month selling pressure, there is still a possibility of a price increase in August, but it may be difficult to reach a new high. The futures price has obvious support due to the discount, and it is advisable to focus on buying the 09 contract on dips [2][10][15]. - Fourth quarter: The market will gradually enter the inventory - accumulation realization period. The replenishment of retail farmers' stalls and the increase in basic supply will add pressure to the pre - Spring Festival market. The futures market has already factored in the expectations in advance, and the premium for distant contracts is insufficient. For off - season contracts such as 11, it is better to wait for a rebound for hedging or short - selling, rather than chasing the low price [2][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fewer Than Expected - In the first half of the year, the pig market went against the consensus. Although the production capacity was increasing, due to early risk control since the end of last year, the slaughter volume was released in advance, and the market did not accumulate frozen products in advance. As a result, the bearish expectations after the Spring Festival failed to materialize. The data used in trading was more bearish and distorted compared to the actual situation [4]. 3.2 Short - term May Still Have Inventory Accumulation Space - Since May, as retail farmers completed inventory reconstruction after the Spring Festival and large - scale farms needed to reduce weight in hot weather, the spot price fell. However, in late June, due to the supply gap caused by the piglet epidemic at the beginning of the year, the supply decreased, and the pig price rose again in early July, with the average price in Henan rising by nearly 11% [6]. - From early July to now, the market has been hesitant again. But due to limited supply growth and improved expectations of retail farmers, the spot price has pressure but is unlikely to drop significantly. In August, the spot price may rise again but is unlikely to reach a new high, and the futures price has support [7][10]. 3.3 Focus on the Upper Pressure in the Fourth Quarter - Although the market's inventory - reduction expectation has not been fulfilled in the first half of the year, inventory accumulation has actually occurred and may be concentratedly realized in the second half of the year. - Compared with 2023, there are differences in the degree of early production - capacity clearance, the support of retail farmers' stalls, and the futures market's long - term expectations. The spot price may be sluggish after the seasonal rebound from August to September [14].