国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250718

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and move upward [2][4]. - The good US economic data supports the copper price [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][13]. - The downside of lead may be limited [2][15]. - The price of tin is weakening [2][18]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in inventory; alumina is expected to be volatile and bullish; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of沪金2510 was 776.28 with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of沪银2510 was 9166 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts also changed to varying degrees [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump's government is expected to visit the Fed regarding decoration issues. The next - likely Fed chairman, Waller, suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [5][7]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,850 with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 8,103 tons [10]. - Macro and Industry News: US retail sales data was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased. China's imports of copper concentrates and unwrought copper and copper products in June showed different trends [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22120 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [13]. - News: Potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16845 with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [15]. - News: Similar to zinc, potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 261,920 with a daily decline of 0.77%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [19]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar macro - level news as other metals, such as Fed - related news and US economic data [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20415. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3089. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [23]. - Comprehensive News: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US and India are close to reaching a trade agreement [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the沪镍主力 was 119,880, and the closing price of the不锈钢主力 was 12,730. The trading volume, positions, and relevant prices in the industrial chain changed [26]. - Macro and Industry News: There are issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada, the start of trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the resumption of production of a nickel smelter in Indonesia [26][27]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [30].