国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250718

Report Overview - Report Date: July 18, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Content: Analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of multiple agricultural product futures including soybean meal, soybeans, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Soybean Meal and Soybeans: Technical buying drove up CBOT soybean prices, and the domestic market showed a strong trend [4][6]. - Sugar: The market was in a narrow consolidation phase [7]. - Cotton: The near - term contracts were stronger than the long - term ones [11]. - Eggs: The peak season arrived earlier, and the culling of hens slowed down [16]. - Hogs: Waiting for the end - of - month market to confirm the price trend, with a focus on reserve policies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Soybeans - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,200 yuan/ton (+34, +0.82%) during the day and 4,215 yuan/ton (+21, +0.50%) at night; DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton (+51, +1.71%) during the day and 3,033 yuan/ton (+22, +0.73%) at night. CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.25 cents/bushel (+7.5, +0.74%). The spot price of soybean meal in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume was 16.81 million tons/day, with a weekly inventory of 84.29 million tons [4]. - News: On July 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to active technical buying and strong Chicago soybean oil prices. However, the optimistic outlook for US soybean production limited the price increase [6]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybeans had a trend intensity of +1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. 3.2 Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.75 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,050 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,828 yuan/ton. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [7][8]. - News: Pakistan approved the import of 50 million tons of sugar, the Brazilian central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow but the MIX increased significantly, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and Brazil's sugar exports in June increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. 3.3 Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2509 closed at 14,250 yuan/ton (+1.86%) during the day and 14,320 yuan/ton (+0.49%) at night. The spot prices of cotton in different regions increased to varying degrees. The cotton spot market was generally quiet, and the cotton yarn market had potential restocking and speculative demand [11][12]. - News: ICE cotton futures rose slightly, supported by the expectation of a trade agreement but limited by the strong US dollar and average weekly export sales data [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. 3.4 Eggs - Fundamentals: The egg 2508 contract closed at 3,462 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.14%), and the egg 2510 contract closed at 3,371 yuan/500 kilograms (-1.40%). The spot prices of eggs in different regions increased [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. 3.5 Hogs - Fundamentals: The spot prices of hogs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong decreased, while the futures prices of hog contracts such as 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts changed to varying degrees [20]. - Market Logic: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, and the focus is on reserve policies. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].