对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，PTA，跟随成本波动，MEG，低库存，月差逢低正套

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Market focuses on Sanfangxiang's production progress, supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. Pay attention to long - term PXN compression positions. Supply - demand is stable in July, spreads are expected to be strong. Aromatics are overvalued relative to oil products, with declining blending margins and increasing oil product supply - demand pressure in Q4 [8]. - PTA: Market concerns include whether Sanfangxiang's production will be postponed due to low processing fees and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. In 01 contract, long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA. Supply increases while demand decreases, with Sanfangxiang's new PTA plant progress being a key factor [8]. - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants have reduced operations, potentially affecting future imports. Imports are expected to decline to 63 - 58 million tons per month from July to August. It is in a bullish - biased sideways market, and positive spreads in calendar spreads are recommended when spreads are low [9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - PX: An East China refinery reduced its load due to a fault, and Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical in China reduced the operating rate of its reforming and crude distillation units. Crude oil futures weakened on July 17, and the spot premium between September and October widened [2][3][5]. - PTA: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. By Thursday, the PTA load reached 79.7%, and the operating rate was around 85.8% [6]. - MEG: As of July 17, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.2% (down 1.37% from the previous period). A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement, expected to last about a month [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained mostly stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The overall polyester load was volatile, and the load in mainland China was around 88.5% [6]. Market Sales - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales on July 17 were still weak, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was average, with an average sales rate of 48% by 3:00 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. Their calendar spreads also showed price changes compared to the day before [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent had different prices and price changes on the previous day compared to the day before. Spot processing fees also had corresponding changes [2].