山金期货黑色板块日报-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The real - estate data in the second quarter and the first half of the year are still weak, indicating that the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, with the strong expectation mainly being the potential new round of supply - side reform brought by "anti - involution" and an increased optimistic expectation for policies. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal and coke, and glass [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the current situation is one of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further and inventory to rise. For iron ore, steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline further, while the global shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory supports the futures price, but the inventory of traded ores at ports is relatively high [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Situation: The real - estate data is weak, and the central urban work conference did not bring the so - called significant positive news rumored last week. The supply - demand data shows a state of weak supply and demand. The demand of the plate sector is better than that of building materials. With high - temperature weather, demand will weaken and inventory will rise. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, and the futures price has stopped falling and is rising, with a short - term strong trend [2] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [2] - Data Summary: - Prices: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3133 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous day and 0.32% from last week [2] - Production: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 209.06 tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - roll production is 321.14 tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of five major varieties has increased, with the rebar social inventory rising by 2.97% and the hot - roll social inventory falling by 0.80% [2] 2. Iron Ore - Market Situation: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. The global shipment is at a high level and rising seasonally. The decline in port inventory supports the futures price, but the traded ore inventory at ports is high. In the short term, it is expected to remain strong due to the rising prices of related products [4] - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [4] - Data Summary: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 785.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.62% from the previous day and 2.88% from last week [4] - Supply: Australian iron ore shipments are 1569.9 tons, down 0.97% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 709.9 tons, up 22.63% from last week [4] - Inventory: The total port inventory is 13765.89 tons, down 0.81% from last week [4] 3. Industry News - There are rumors of large - scale production cuts in the coking industry in Wuhai due to losses and environmental protection, but the actual production cut is limited [6] - As of the week of July 17, rebar production and apparent demand have declined for the second consecutive week, with the factory inventory changing from an increase to a decrease and the social inventory changing from a decrease to an increase [6] - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 43 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [6] - As of July 17, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low in more than 5 months, while the production has increased slightly [6]