宝城期货甲醇早报-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being oscillatory and bullish. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory and bullish trend [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand enters the off - season, and the supply - demand structure tends to be loose [5]. - Market sentiment: After a sharp correction, bearish sentiment has been released. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The strengthening of coal futures prices drives the bullish trend of methanol futures [5]. - Price performance: On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.68% to 2385 yuan/ton [5].