棉花：近强远弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a "near - strong, far - weak" view on cotton. It shows the current situation of the cotton market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the situation of US cotton [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2509 was 14,250 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the night - session closing price was 14320 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.49% - 0.51%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.24%, and the night - session closing price was 20535 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 68.84 cents/pound with a 0.41% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 673,094 lots, an increase of 286,459 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 919,015 lots, an increase of 35,587 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 10,517 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 20,012 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,585, a decrease of 58, and the effective forecast was 223 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 97, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.70% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan or 1.73%. The price in Shandong was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan or 0.50%, and in Hebei was 15,393 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.52%. The 3128B index was 15,354 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan or 0.54%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound with no change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.88%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The overall trading of domestic cotton spots was sluggish, and some high - price quotes began to lower the basis. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different basis quotes for self - pick - up in the region [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The pure - cotton yarn market changed little, but there were potential restocking and speculative demands from downstream due to continuous price increases. The price of all - cotton grey cloth increased, with some small orders increasing and urgent delivery times, but the overall market was still sluggish with limited improvement. Currently, fabric mills still faced high inventory pressure for regular varieties, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2]. - US Cotton Situation: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, supported by the expectation of a possible trade agreement between the US and other countries. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and the average weekly export sales data of US cotton limited the increase. As of the week ending July 10, the export shipment of US cotton in the 24/25 season was 156,400 bales, a 35% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average. The net sales of US cotton in the 25/26 season increased by 73,000 bales [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, representing different levels of bullish or bearish views, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5].