宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.54 per barrel, up 1.75%; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692.00 per ton, down 1.91% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $833.00 per ton, down 0.16%; CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA internal market was 4,728 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the external market was $620.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1] - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,742 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,935 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; in South China was 6,010 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, and short - fiber showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - On July 17, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32%, down 0.66%; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.15%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 40.00%, down 2.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, up 9.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 53.00%, down 10.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Market Analysis - International crude oil prices showed an interval fluctuation. Although there was a short - term rebound, the supply - demand situation was weak. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2] - The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees. The downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than that of last year, and the spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side, it is difficult to boost prices [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable at 5,900 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The supply side's quotations were mixed, with low operating rates but sufficient market supply. Downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was average, and market sentiment was cautious [2]