中泰期货晨会纪要-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trends are predicted for various commodities, including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as 偏空, 震荡, or 偏多 [2][5]. - For different sectors such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, specific trading strategies and market outlooks are provided for each commodity. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to moving average support, consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to the release of short - term positive factors [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the liquidity of funds during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound [12]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuations are due to the release of second - quarter economic data and the current high profits of steel mills. In the short term, the market may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in cash - futures positive spreads [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Affected by industry policy expectations, the black series has risen, and coking coal and coke continue to rebound. In the short term, they are expected to maintain the rebound trend, but in the medium term, they may be weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16][17]. Ferroalloys - It is estimated that the supply gap of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will narrow significantly in July. It is recommended to hold short positions as the supply - demand structure weakens marginally [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be considered for short - selling when the market sentiment weakens; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider holding. The market has stabilized and risen today, following the strength of new energy varieties [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as reduced risk appetite and increased inventory accumulation expectations. In the future, it can be bought at low prices during the peak consumption season. Alumina: It can be short - term long to repair the discount, but in the long term, there is an oversupply pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state due to supply disturbances and market sentiment [22]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation, but there is no continuous upward driving force due to high supply elasticity [23]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile operation, but due to the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is in a volatile rebound. It is recommended to hold long September and short January positions cautiously at high levels. The focus is on macro and supply - demand changes [27][28]. Sugar - The domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile due to low domestic inventory and expected increase in imported sugar [30][32]. Eggs - It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the futures price is over - valued [34]. Apples - It is recommended to conduct light - position positive spreads. The price may weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to the output and price of early - maturing apples [35]. Corn - The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price is affected by policy support and substitution from wheat [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to lightly short. The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [38][39]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long term. It is recommended to short at high prices [41]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [42]. Plastics - It is recommended to hold put options or be slightly short as the supply - demand situation is weak [43]. Rubber - It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Short - buying on dips can be considered, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level pressure [44]. Methanol - The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to be short after a rebound or consider put options [45]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term [46]. Asphalt - It follows the trend of crude oil, and its fundamentals are in the seasonal off - season with only rigid demand [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling on approaching pressure levels is recommended [48]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to use strategies to increase income when holding spot goods [49]. Logs - Be cautious when going long, pay attention to the basis change, and consider hedging strategies [49]. Urea - It is recommended to buy on dips as the futures price has a callback demand and there is an upward driving force [49][50].