合成橡胶：跟随橡胶板块偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "moderately bullish" sentiment within the [-2, 2] integer range [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, synthetic rubber follows the rubber sector and shows a moderately strong performance. However, the fundamental pressure within the synthetic rubber industry chain remains relatively high, and supply - side pressure restricts the upward movement of prices. As a result, the NR - BR price spread continues to widen [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber (BR) main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price increased from 11,525 yuan/ton to 11,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume rose from 57,449 lots to 69,387 lots, the open interest decreased from 20,703 lots to 18,411 lots, and the trading volume value increased from 329,497 ten - thousand yuan to 399,737 ten - thousand yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract decreased from 75 to 30, the monthly spread (BR08 - BR09) decreased from 75 to 25. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) all increased, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (deliverable product) remained unchanged at 11,600 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 65.2894%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber increased from 12,079 yuan/ton to 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased from - 379 yuan/ton to - 482 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - Valuation Range: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading, the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2508 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (with a monthly holding cost of around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting the futures, which will gradually increase the upward pressure on the futures market. The lower valuation limit is expected to be supported by butadiene costs, with a theoretical bottom - end valuation of around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3] - Market Situation: Natural rubber in Thailand has seen stable raw material prices and a slight rebound in cup lump prices. There are many weather - related speculations, and under a relatively positive macro - sentiment, market speculation is strong [3]