宏源期货日刊-20250718

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of ethylene glycol (MEG) has been fluctuating within a certain range, with the spot price reaching a high of 4,460 yuan/ton and the basis weakening towards the end of the session. The market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, and the trading volume of futures contracts has increased. However, the downstream polyester industry is still facing pressure, with a decline in the operating rate and a decrease in the demand for raw materials. The restart of some MEG production facilities has been delayed, which may affect the supply in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts may also have an impact on the local loading plans and the market sentiment. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Naphtha CFR Japan: The price on July 17, 2025, was $574.75/ton, down 1.14% from the previous value. [1] - Ethylene Northeast Asia: The price on July 16, 2025, was $821.00/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - Ethylene Oxide in East China: The ex - factory average price on July 18, 2025, was 6,450 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - Methanol MA: The price on July 17, 2025, was 2,377.50 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - Lignite in Inner Mongolia: The pit - mouth price (tax - included) on July 17, 2025, was 290 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - DCE EG Futures Contracts: - The closing price of the main contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,372 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous value. - The settlement price of the main contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,367 yuan/ton, up 0.87% from the previous value. - The closing price of the near - month contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,226 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. - The settlement price of the near - month contract on July 17, 2025, was 4,226 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG) in East China: The market price (mid - price) on July 17, 2025, was 4,440 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value. The CCFEI price index for MEG inner - market on July 17, 2025, was 4,440 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous value. [1] - Near - far Month Spread of MEG: On July 17, 2025, it was - 141 yuan/ton, down from - 107 yuan/ton previously. [1] - Comprehensive Operating Rate of MEG: On July 17, 2025, it was 56.46%, down 0.19% from the previous value. [1] - Operating Rate of Petroleum - based MEG: On July 17, 2025, it was 58.73%, up 0.82% from the previous value. [1] - Operating Rate of Coal - based MEG: On July 17, 2025, it was 53.17%, down 1.66% from the previous value. [1] - PTA Industrial Chain Load Rate: - The load rate of polyester factories on July 17, 2025, was 87.15%, remaining unchanged from the previous value. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on July 17, 2025, was 58.02%, down 1.10% from the previous value. [1] - Cash - flow Situation: - The after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG on July 17, 2025, was 1,650.73 yuan/ton, down 19.34 yuan/ton from the previous value. - The after - tax gross profit of coal - based syngas method on July 17, 2025, was 663.26 yuan/ton, up 28.76 yuan/ton from the previous value. [1] - Polyester Price Index: - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on July 17, 2025, was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on July 17, 2025, was 6,605 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on July 17, 2025, was 6,950 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous value. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on July 17, 2025, was 5,935 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous value. [1] - Basis of MEG: On July 17, 2025, it was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous value. [1] Important Information - A 150,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol production facility in Xinjiang has been facing difficulties in restarting recently. [2] - The price of ethylene glycol has been fluctuating within a certain range, with the spot price reaching a high of 4,460 yuan/ton. The basis of the spot price has weakened towards the end of the session. The negotiation price of some cargoes is around $515 - 520/ton, and some cargoes are traded at around $53/ton. [2] - The trading volume of ethylene glycol futures has increased, and the market sentiment has been somewhat boosted. The downstream polyester industry is still facing pressure, with a decline in the operating rate and a decrease in the demand for raw materials. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts may affect the local loading plans and the market sentiment. [2]