Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply side of lithium carbonate is experiencing renewed disruptions, and its short - term trend may be strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,960 yuan, with changes of 1,540 yuan compared to T - 1, 3,780 yuan compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume was 826,939 lots, and the open interest was 363,676 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 67,180 yuan, the trading volume was 93,462 lots, and the open interest was 105,305 lots. The warehouse receipt volume was 10,239 lots, showing a decrease compared to previous periods [1] - Basis Data: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 3,010 yuan, spot - 2511 was - 2,230 yuan, 2509 - 2511 was 780 yuan, etc. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 1,600 yuan, and the difference between spot and CIF was 5,503 yuan [1] - Raw Material Data: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 693 dollars, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,465 yuan, etc. [1] - Lithium Salt and Related Product Data: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,950 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,350 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,570 yuan, etc. [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,779 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2] - On July 17, 2025, Zangge Mining's subsidiary received a notice to stop lithium resource development. Zangge Lithium Industry has stopped production and is handling the mining procedures. In 2025, it planned to produce and sell 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate. In the first half of the year, it was expected to produce 5,350 tons, sell 4,470 tons, and achieve a net profit of 49 million yuan, which has a small impact on the company's performance, and the resumption time is uncertain [3] - This week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, an increase of 302 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons from last week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]
碳酸锂：供给端扰动再起，短期走势或偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-18 02:00