棕榈油：短期利空出尽，情绪偏好，豆油：跟随油脂板块上涨，品种间偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and market sentiment is positive [4]. - Soybean oil: It follows the upward trend of the oil and fat sector but is relatively weak among varieties [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,796 yuan/ton with a 0.85% increase; closing price (night session) is 8,890 yuan/ton with a 1.07% increase. Trading volume is 567,537 lots with an increase of 74,126 lots, and open interest is 538,144 lots with an increase of 36,067 lots [2]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase; closing price (night session) is 8,126 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase. Trading volume is 282,385 lots with a decrease of 11,523 lots, and open interest is 536,560 lots with an increase of 7,383 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,440 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease; closing price (night session) is 9,496 yuan/ton with a 0.59% increase. Trading volume is 339,311 lots with an increase of 99,278 lots, and open interest is 233,995 lots with a decrease of 4,687 lots [2]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 4,212 ringgit/ton with a 0.36% increase; closing price (night session) is 4,273 ringgit/ton with a 2.22% increase [2]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 56.15 cents/pound with a 2.69% increase [2]. - Spot Data: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,770 yuan/ton with no price change [2]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,260 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,460 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan decrease [2]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price is 1,040 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [2]. - Basis and Spread Data: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is - 26 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 188 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread is 644 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread is - 724 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread is 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread is 42 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 66 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. Indonesia has raised the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40% in 2025 to reduce dependence on imported diesel [3]. - Malaysia's reference price for crude palm oil in August is 3,864.12 ringgit/ton (about 910.28 dollars/ton), up significantly from July. The export tax will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [5]. - According to Afrinvest, global palm oil prices are expected to rise significantly, reaching 1,200 dollars/ton by the end of 2025, a 33% increase from the current 900 - dollar price, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and growing global demand driven by biofuel policies [5]. - Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, with relevant research expected to be completed by the end of the year. Whether to implement B50 in 2026 is undetermined [5]. - As of the week ending July 15, about 7% of US soybean - growing areas and 9% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 9% and 12% in the previous week respectively [6]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) has raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025 soybean exports to 109 million tons and soybean processing volume to 57.8 million tons [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1; soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [7].