国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - PX, PTA follow cost fluctuations; MEG has low inventory, and it's advisable to take long - short spreads when the price difference is low. Rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to be strong in a volatile market; asphalt will fluctuate within a range. Caustic soda has strong demand support and there are still expectations for the peak season. Pulp is expected to be strong in a volatile market; glass prices are stable. Methanol and urea will run in a short - term volatile state; styrene will be weak and volatile. Soda ash has little change in the spot market; LPG has effective cost support and may rebound in the short term. Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak. Short - fiber will be in a short - term volatile market; bottle - chip will be volatile in the short term, with a strategy of going long on PR and short on PF. Offset printing paper will run in a volatile state; pure benzene will be weak and volatile [2][11][12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX主力昨日收盘价6742，涨跌幅26；PTA主力昨日收盘价4714，涨跌幅0.17%；MEG主力昨日收盘价4372，涨跌幅0.48%。PX9 - 1昨日收盘价134，前日收盘价98；PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价66，前日收盘价50；MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价17，前日收盘价2 [5]. - Market News: An East China refinery reduced its PX load due to a fault; crude oil futures weakened on July 17. PTA device load increased to 79.7% by Thursday; MEG overall start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% as of July 17, with a decline of 1.37% compared to the previous period. A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement [5][6][9]. - View and Suggestion: The market is concerned about the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. PX supply is still tight. Avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. Pay attention to the compression of long - term PXN positions. PTA should also avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. For MEG, it's expected to be strong in a volatile market, and take long - short spreads when the price difference is low [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - Market Data: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the night - session closing price was 14,885 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The trading volume was 333,832 lots, an increase of 99,586 lots; the open interest was 151,500 lots, an increase of 2,850 lots [15]. - Industry News: Rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas has intensified short - term supply disruptions, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has risen significantly. In May 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world were 149,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 11.22%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 732,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Market Data: The daily closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the trading volume was 69,387 lots, an increase of 11,938 lots; the open interest was 18,411 lots, a decrease of 2,292 lots [18]. - Industry News: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the short term, synthetic rubber will follow the rubber sector and be strong in a volatile market, but the fundamentals of its own industrial chain still face significant pressure [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt - Market Data: BU2508's closing price was 3,649 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price was 3,663 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. BU2509's closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the night - session closing price was 3,643 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [22]. - Market News: From July 11 - 17, 2025, China's weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4%; a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons, an increase of 16.5%. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0% compared to July 14. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.827 million tons, an increase of 0.3% compared to July 14 [36]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - Market Data: The 09 - contract futures price was 2,484 yuan/ton; the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton; the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton; the basis was 141 [37]. - Market News: The price of the caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The high - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but the sales at high prices are not good after the price increase. The sales of low - concentration caustic soda at high prices have slowed down [38]. - View: Caustic soda is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient upward momentum, but it has strong cost support due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. It's advisable to take long - short spreads for the 10 - 1 contracts [39]. 3.6 Pulp - Market Data: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the night - session closing price was 5,318 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan. The trading volume was 180,569 lots, an increase of 20,629 lots; the open interest was 141,751 lots, a decrease of 1,682 lots [44]. - Industry News: The average price of the imported pulp market has risen slightly this period. The supply - side port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas offer is declining; the downstream paper mill's start - up rate is stable and low, and the procurement is only for rigid restocking [45][47]. 3.7 Glass - Market Data: The closing price of FG509 was 1,092 yuan/ton, up 2.06%. The trading volume was 1,832,573 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,105 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 22 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 76 yuan [49]. - Market News: The domestic float glass market remains stable with minor fluctuations. The selling prices in some Shahe markets have slightly declined, and the demand sustainability is uncertain [49]. 3.8 Methanol - Market Data: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 449,450 lots, an increase of 539 lots; the open interest was 653,886 lots, a decrease of 196 lots [52]. - Market News: The port methanol market fluctuated slightly this period. The traditional downstream demand in the port area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The inland methanol market showed regional differentiation [54]. - View: Methanol is expected to run in a short - term volatile state. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand has also weakened, with MTO having a neutral - to - low profit and traditional demand declining [54]. 3.9 Urea - Market Data: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,743 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 137,230 lots, an increase of 10,358 lots; the open interest was 198,012 lots, an increase of 379 lots [56]. - Industry News: On July 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. In the short term, domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing a volatile trend [57]. 3.10 Styrene - Market Data: Styrene2507 was 7,260 yuan/ton; Styrene2508 was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; Styrene2509 was 7,221 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [59]. - Market News: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, while the supply of styrene has increased and the demand has decreased. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation phase [60]. 3.11 Soda Ash - Market Data: The closing price of SA2509 was 1,225 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The trading volume was 1,359,320 lots, and the open interest decreased by 39,415 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 25 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 46 yuan [63]. - Market News: The domestic soda ash market is running steadily and lightly, with flexible price transactions. The soda ash production device is running stably, and the production is at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the transactions are mainly based on demand [63]. 3.12 LPG - Market Data: The closing price of PG2508 was 4,078 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; the night - session closing price was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of PG2509 was 3,985 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the night - session closing price was 3,992 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [66]. - Market News: On July 16, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for August: propane was 549 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; butane was 519 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The expected Saudi CP for September: propane was 548 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; butane was 518 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [73]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Data: The closing price of FU2509 was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of FU2510 was 2,878 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The closing price of LU2509 was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 1.38%; the closing price of LU2510 was 3,576 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [76]. - View: Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [76]. 3.14 Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Market Data: The closing price of short - fiber 2508 was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of bottle - chip 2508 was 5,928 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [78]. - Market News: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber futures are in a volatile state. The factory offers are stable, and the discounts have been moderately increased. The polyester bottle - chip factory offers have been partially increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the market trading atmosphere is light [78][79]. 3.15 Offset Printing Paper - Market Data: The prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and other paper types in the Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged on July 17, 2025 [82]. - Industry News: The mainstream intended transaction price of high - white offset printing paper in the Shandong market is 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that in the Guangdong market is 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton. The social orders are in the off - season, and the dealers' inventory - clearing progress is average [83]. 3.16 Pure Benzene - Market Data: BZ2603 was 6,122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 16.4 tons, down 1 ton; the styrene inventory in East China ports was 131,060 tons, up 1,640 tons [84]. - News: As of July 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 164,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.75% and a year - on - year increase of 272.73%. The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 24.22% compared to the previous period [85].