格林大华期货钢材早盘提示-20250718

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils rose and continued to surge in the night session. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. In June 2025, China's air-conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative output from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. In June, the national refrigerator output was 9.047 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; the cumulative output from January to June was 50.642 million units, remaining flat year-on-year. In June, the national washing machine output was 9.508 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; the cumulative output from January to June was 58.604 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In June, the national color TV output was 16.252 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%; the cumulative output from January to June was 91.871 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The Party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal, constructing a new real - estate development model, and promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. This week, the supply of five major steel products was 868,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,530 tons or 0.5%; the total inventory was 1.33766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,920 tons or 0.1%; the apparent consumption was 870,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. This week, rebar output and apparent demand decreased while inventory increased; hot - rolled coil output and inventory decreased while apparent demand increased. The pressure level for rebar is 3,200, and the important support level is 3,000. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3,130, and the pressure level is 3,400. It is difficult for rebar to break through 3,200 in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and continued to surge in the night session [1] Important Information - From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [1] - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%; the cumulative output from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [1] - In June, the national refrigerator output was 9.047 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the cumulative output from January to June was 50.642 million units, remaining flat year - on - year [1] - In June, the national washing machine output was 9.508 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; the cumulative output from January to June was 58.604 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [1] - In June, the national color TV output was 16.252 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%; the cumulative output from January to June was 91.871 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [1] - The Party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal, constructing a new real - estate development model, and promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses [1] Market Data - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 868,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,530 tons or 0.5% [1] - The total inventory was 1.33766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,920 tons or 0.1% [1] - The apparent consumption was 870,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [1] Market Logic - This week, rebar output and apparent demand decreased while inventory increased; hot - rolled coil output and inventory decreased while apparent demand increased [1] - The pressure level for rebar is 3,200, and the important support level is 3,000. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3,130, and the pressure level is 3,400 [1] Trading Strategy - It is difficult for rebar to break through 3,200 in the short term [1]