宁证期货今日早评-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, trading suggestions, and factors influencing supply and demand. [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - Crude Oil: Currently in a multi - empty stalemate. OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance in the medium term, and there may be a supply surplus after the summer demand peak. Short - term: wait and see. [2] - PTA: PTA's operating rate has increased slightly, polyester inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has dragged down the spot price. With crude oil oscillating, short - term: wait and see. [9] - Methanol: The cost of coal is expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be weak. The port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2370. Suggestion: wait and see. [9] Metals - Iron Ore: The recent anti - involution policy has boosted the black market sentiment, and the supply of steel is expected to shrink. The fundamentals of iron ore have not shown obvious signs of weakening in the off - season. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Suggestion: buy on dips. [4] - Steel Rebar: In the short term, the rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly accumulating but still at a low level. The market has insufficient contradictions and driving forces. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate. [5] - Silver: The growth of US retail sales and the decrease in initial jobless claims indicate strong economic resilience in the US. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on precious metals. [14] - Gold: Although US economic data is strong, the US dollar has limited upward momentum. If the US dollar falls, gold may rebound, but the medium - term view is wide - range oscillation. [15] Agricultural Products - Coke: Coking coal prices continue to rise, and there is a strong expectation of a second price increase. Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [2] - Pig: Yesterday, the national pig price continued to decline, with a temporary oversupply situation. However, there is strong macro - bullish sentiment. Suggestion: trade within a range. [6] - Palm Oil: Supported by import costs, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. [6] - Rapeseed Meal: The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the proportion of rapeseed meal in feed formulations is low. Suggestion: buy on dips. [7] Others - Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds: Second - quarter economic data exceeded expectations, and foreign institutions raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, which is bearish for the bond market. However, the recent stock market correction is bullish for bonds. The bond market is at a critical juncture near the 60 - day moving average. [12] - Short - Term Treasury Bonds: The decline in money market interest rates is bullish for short - term bonds. The upward momentum of short - term bonds may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [14] - Rubber: There are still weather disturbances on the supply side, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has rebounded on the demand side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate strongly, but the demand has not significantly improved. [15] - Polypropylene: The supply is still abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The demand side has weak purchasing enthusiasm. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 7055. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [11] - Soda Ash: The float glass market has stable production and decreasing inventory, but the demand support is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1250. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [10]