工业硅、多晶硅日评：供给端扰动不断，硅系价格走势坚挺-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side may see a reduction after offsetting increases and decreases, while the demand side has mixed trends. Short - term silicon prices are expected to continue a relatively strong consolidation with amplified fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there is upward pressure on the market [1]. - For polysilicon, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, but there is a risk of price decline after reaching a high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [1]. - The basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 205 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [1]. - Market News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will limit the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures and the SI2509 contract of industrial silicon futures from July 21, 2025 [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week [1]. - Fundamentals - Supply: Northern large factories have production cuts with no resumption news, and the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with a slow resumption of production. Overall, supply may decrease [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts but some will resume production in July; organic silicon enterprises have strong intentions to cut production and support prices but weak demand; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information - N - type dense material rose 3.41% to 45.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 2.75% to 46.75 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material rose 1.15% to 44 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 43 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 45,700 yuan/ton, up 6.42% [1]. - Fundamentals - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, but new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output in July is expected to approach 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although the trading atmosphere has improved recently, the terminal market remains weak [1]. Other Products - Silicon Wafer Prices - N - type 210mm wafers rose 23.70% to 1.67 yuan/piece, N - type 210R wafers rose 24.35% to 1.43 yuan/piece, and N - type 183mm wafers rose 25.00% to 1.25 yuan/piece. P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm wafers remained unchanged [1]. - Battery Cell Prices - The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - Component Prices - The prices of single - crystal PERC components remained unchanged [1]. - Organic Silicon Prices - The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1].