中原期货晨会纪要-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows mixed trends. Unemployment rates in different age groups in China have different changes, and the US Congress has passed bills related to cryptocurrency regulation. The overall economy shows signs of development, with stable summer grain production and positive changes in the agricultural and rural economy [7][8]. - In the financial market, on July 17, A - share major indices rose collectively, and European and American stock markets also closed higher. The performance of various commodities in the futures market is diverse, with some rising and some falling [12][16][17]. - Different commodity sectors have different market conditions. For example, the agricultural product market is generally in a pattern of weak supply and demand; the energy - chemical market is affected by factors such as supply and demand changes and policy adjustments; the industrial metal market is under pressure from factors such as trade policies and seasonal demand [12][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Stock Indices: On July 18, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 44484.49, up 0.519% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 20884.27, up 0.742%; the S&P 500 was 6297.36, up 0.537%; the Hang Seng Index was 24498.95, down 0.077% [2]. - Macroeconomic Indicators: SHIBOR overnight was 1.46, down 0.205%; the US dollar index was 98.49, down 0.159%; the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - Commodity Futures: In the international market, COMEX gold was 3345.40, down 0.262%; COMEX silver was 38.44, up 0.813%. In the domestic market, gold was 776.74, up 0.059%; silver was 9204.00, up 0.415%, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Unemployment Rate: In June, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force in Chinese urban areas (excluding students) was 14.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the 25 - 29 - year - old was 6.7%, down 0.3 percentage points; the 30 - 59 - year - old was 4.0%, up 0.1 percentage point [7]. - Cryptocurrency Regulation: The US House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" and the "Clarity Act" related to cryptocurrency regulation [7]. - Resident Income: In the first half of 2025, 11 provinces had per - capita disposable income of residents exceeding 20,000 yuan, with Shanghai ranking first at 46,805 yuan [8]. - Agricultural Economy: In the first half of the year, China's summer grain output was 299.48 billion catties, achieving stable production and a good harvest. The autumn grain area is expected to increase steadily [8]. - Housing and Urban Construction: The Party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal and the construction of a new real - estate development model [8]. - Consumption Tax Policy: Starting from July 20, 2025, the threshold for the consumption tax on ultra - luxury cars will be lowered to 900,000 yuan, and new - energy models will be included in the scope of collection [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but still maintain a downward trend [12]. - Oils and Fats: The market trading is light, and it is expected to fluctuate in the near future [12]. - Sugar: The global production increase expectation is strengthened, but the domestic market has a balance of long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the pressure level and risk control [12]. - Corn: The supply is under pressure from inventory and auctions, and the demand is weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [12]. - Pigs: The price has been falling slightly, and the supply in the next 2 - 3 months is expected to be relatively abundant, with the futures market in a weak and volatile state [14]. - Eggs: The price is rising, with improved supply - demand conditions. There is still room for price increase in the short term [14]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Caustic Soda: The fundamentals are weak, and the price has fallen under pressure this week [14]. - Urea: The supply is expected to increase after a short - term decline, and the market may fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The prices of copper and aluminum are under pressure due to factors such as trade policies and seasonal demand [15]. - Alumina: The price is in a consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - market sentiment [15]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The overall pressure on inventory accumulation is limited, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15]. - Ferroalloys: The medium - and long - term production capacity is in excess, but there is still upward space in the short term due to the warm commodity atmosphere [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They are strongly supported and are expected to operate strongly [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply pressure is increasing, but the demand has marginal improvement. Attention should be paid to the pressure of hedging and key price levels [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock Index: A - share major indices rose on July 17, and European and American stock markets also closed higher. Investment strategies such as low - buying opportunities and short - term trading are recommended [17][19]. - Options: On July 17, A - share major indices rose, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options had different changes. Trend investors can consider long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [20][21].