甲醇日评：估值偏高，驱动向下-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of methanol is expected to be weakly volatile. Methanol is relatively over - valued as upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have recovered but inland downstream profits are still poor. In terms of driving factors, there is a trend of increasing supply, decreasing demand, and inventory accumulation for methanol. If downstream MTO device maintenance is implemented, it will push down the methanol price. Even if not, the high raw material inventory of current downstream MTO enterprises makes it difficult for them to have further inventory - building demand, and port inventory is likely to continue to increase, suppressing the spot price in East China. It is recommended to short on rallies. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2450 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On July 17, 2025, MA01 closed at 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.16%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2365 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.17%); MA09 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.25%) [1]. - Spot prices: Spot prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2387.50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.42%); in Shandong, it was 2265.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.11%); in Guangdong, it was 2385.00 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 50.50 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Coal prices of different varieties increased slightly. For example, the price of Port Shuohuang Q5500 was 440.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.57%); the price of Datong Q5500 was 505.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.50%); the price of Yulin Q6000 was 510.00 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.49%) [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 398.20 yuan/ton, down 6.30 yuan/ton (- 1.56%); natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 590.00 yuan/ton [1]. - MTO profit: Northwest MTO profit was 404.20 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan/ton (- 6.91%); East China MTO profit was - 701.07 yuan/ton, down 26.50 yuan/ton (- 3.93%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profit: Profits of different downstream products showed different trends. For example, the profit of acetic acid was 305.91 yuan/ton, down 8.79 yuan/ton (- 2.79%); the profit of MTBE was 157.24 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan/ton (46.62%); the profit of formaldehyde remained at - 238.80 yuan/ton [1]. d. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2361 yuan/ton, closing at 2373 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 449,450 lots and an open interest of 653,886 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading volumes during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month is 260 - 270 US dollars/ton. Recently, a small number of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month were traded at a premium of +1.7 - 1.8%, and it was heard that a small number of far - month non - Iranian shipments were traded at 270 US dollars/ton. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference trading price of far - month shipments is at a premium of +0.8 - 1% [1].