招商期货商品期货早班车-20250718

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract closed at 20475 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing with a 2.6 - ton increase in weekly operating capacity, while demand is weak in the traditional off - season with a 0.1% drop in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Alumina: The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 0.71% from the previous trading day. The supply is stable with no change in weekly operating capacity, and demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The main 09 contract closed at 8745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total number of open furnaces increased by 3, with an overall open - furnace rate of 29.75%. Social inventory decreased slightly last week. The price is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the opening of furnaces in Xinjiang and the price trend of polysilicon [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main LC2509 contract closed at 67960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%. The supply in July is expected to be 81150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase month - on - month. The demand is expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - The main 09 contract closed at 45300 yuan/ton, breaking the record high. The price increase is related to the "anti - involution" and the expectation of supply - side reform. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand in the third - quarter photovoltaic installation market is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the leading enterprises' shipping prices and the acceptance of downstream customers [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2510 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton. The building material supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The overall steel supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the rebar 2601 contract [3]. - Iron Ore: The main 2509 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton. The iron ore supply - demand is marginally neutral, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the iron ore 2601 contract [3]. - Coking Coal: The main 2509 contract closed at 938 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the coking coal 2601 contract [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The overnight CBOT soybean rose, driven by US soybean oil. The supply is loose both in the near - term and long - term, and the demand depends on tariff policies. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - Corn: The corn 2509 contract rebounded from the bottom. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the price is affected by substitutes and import grain auctions. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5825 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - Cotton: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated upward. The international cotton export sales decreased, while the domestic cotton price is affected by inventory changes in Xinjiang. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy [4]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil price continued to rise overnight. The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand has support. It is expected to be strong in the short - term and tight annually [4]. - Egg: The egg 2508 contract fluctuated narrowly. The supply is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - Live Pig: The live pig 2509 contract opened low and closed high. The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - Apple: The main contract closed at 7835 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The new - season early - maturing apple price has increased, but the current consumption is light. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The V09 contract closed at 4956 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [6]. - PTA: The PX CFR China price is 833 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4730 yuan/ton. The PX supply - demand is in a de - stocking state, and the PTA supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to over - allocate PX and look for positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term [6]. - Glass: The fg09 contract closed at 1093 yuan/ton, up 2%. The supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and the inventory is decreasing. The valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see and track the implementation of production - cut policies [6]. - MEG: The East China spot price is 4437 yuan/ton. The supply is at a medium - high level, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short at high prices [7]. - Crude Oil: The oil price rose due to production reduction in Iraq and an unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventory. The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [7]. - Soda Ash: The sa09 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating at a high level. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [7].