碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be relatively loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month-on-month [1]. - The production suspension of some lithium resource development projects has a limited impact on the overall supply of the domestic lithium carbonate market [2]. - The demand for lithium - related products shows different trends, with some production volumes expected to increase month - on - month [3][4]. - The investment strategy suggests trading appropriate amounts of lithium carbonate futures contracts, paying attention to the support level around 62,000 - 65,000 and the pressure level around 70,000 - 74,000 [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - Prices: On July 17, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 68,060 yuan/ton, 67,960 yuan/ton, 67,180 yuan/ton, and 67,180 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 826,939 lots, an increase of 348,825 lots compared to the previous day; the open interest was 363,676 lots, an increase of 23,058 lots [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different contracts and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - active contract closing price) showed certain changes. For example, the basis was - 3,010 yuan/ton on July 17, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - Lithium Ore: The average prices of various types of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone showed slight increases or remained stable [1]. - Lithium - Related Products: The average prices of most lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased by 400 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Side Information - Production Suspension: The production line of Golmud Gege Mining Co., Ltd. with a monthly production capacity of about 200 tons of lithium carbonate has been shut down, but the impact on the overall market supply is limited. The company is actively cooperating to improve mining procedures [2]. - Production Increase Projects: Some projects such as Guangdong Yihai Lithium's battery - grade lithium carbonate production project and Zangge Mining's Mayum Co Lake project are expected to increase production capacity in the future [2]. Demand - Side Information - Phosphoric Acid and Phosphoric Acid Lithium: The monthly average production cost of phosphoric acid and phosphoric acid lithium in China is in a certain range, and the production volume of phosphoric acid lithium is expected to increase month - on - month [3]. Investment Strategy - Project Progress: Projects such as Hubei Ruipai New Energy's phosphoric acid iron ultra - pressure electrode material project and Tiancheng Lithium's phosphoric acid iron project are in different stages of progress and are expected to increase production capacity [4]. - Production and Trade Trends: The production and trade of various lithium - related products in China show different trends, with some production volumes expected to increase, and the processing fees of some intermediate products rising [4]. - Trading Suggestion: Trade appropriate amounts of lithium carbonate futures contracts, paying attention to the support level around 62,000 - 65,000 and the pressure level around 70,000 - 74,000 [4].