格林大华期货玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250718

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The corn market has different trends in the short, medium, and long term. Short - term prices may be under pressure but could stabilize, medium - term prices are expected to be stronger, and long - term prices are limited by policy and substitution factors [2]. - The pig market is likely to have a weak shock in the short term, face challenges in rising in the medium term, and maintain high production capacity in the long term [4]. - The egg market may strengthen in the short term, have a potential rebound in the medium term, and face supply pressure in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - Market Conditions: The night - session of the previous day's corn futures showed a slightly stronger trend, with the 2509 contract rising 0.61% to 2300 yuan/ton. The spot market in the Northeast was weakly stable, while that in North China rose slightly [2]. - Important Information: The purchase price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2300 - 2310 yuan/ton, and the price at Shekou Port remained unchanged at 2440 yuan/ton. The mainstream purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast remained unchanged at 2243 yuan/ton, and that in North China rose 7 yuan/ton to 2456 yuan/ton. As of July 17, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 184,971, and the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong remained at 50 yuan/ton. Today, CGS will organize an auction of 294,976 tons of imported corn [2]. - Market Logic: In the short term, the continuous import corn auction weakens the bullish sentiment, but the anti - price - decline sentiment and the positive and expanding wheat - corn price difference may support the price. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to tighten, but the price increase is limited. In the long term, policy grain supply and wheat substitution will limit the price increase [2]. - Trading Strategy: Long - term interval operation; medium - term low - buying; short - term downward pressure. Hold long positions for the 2509 contract, with the first pressure level at 2310 and the next at 2340 if it breaks through [2]. Pig - Market Conditions: The previous day's main pig futures contracts fluctuated narrowly, with the LH2509 contract falling 0.28% to 14,060 yuan/ton and the LH2511 contract falling 0.07% to 13,535 yuan/ton [4]. - Important Information: On the 17th, the national average pig price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg. The number of fertile sows in June 2025 was 40.43 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The fat - standard price difference on July 17 was 0.13 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin. The weekly average slaughter weight was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg. The number of futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 444 [4]. - Market Logic: In the short term, the pig price may maintain a weak shock. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously. In the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [4]. - Trading Strategy: Long - term short - selling; medium - term interval operation; short - term decline. For the 2509 contract, the pressure is at 14,400 - 14,600, and the support is at 13,870 - 14,000. For the 2511 contract, the pressure is at 13,800, and the support is at 13,400 [4]. Egg - Market Conditions: The previous day's egg futures fluctuated weakly, with the JD2509 contract falling 0.28% to 3595 yuan/500kg [4]. - Important Information: The previous day's egg price mainly rose steadily, with the main - producing area average price rising 0.13 yuan/jin to 2.89 yuan/jin and the main - selling area average price rising 0.1 yuan/jin to 3.3 yuan/jin. The average production - link inventory was 0.93 days, down 0.02 days, and the circulation - link inventory remained at 1.04 days. The average price of old hens was 5.06 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin. The number of laying hens in June was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 6.77%. In the first half of the year, the national poultry slaughter was 8.14 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, and the poultry egg production was 17.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [4]. - Market Logic: In the short term, the egg price may strengthen but is difficult to rise sharply. In the medium term, there may be a rebound in August - September, but the high point is not overly optimistic. In the long term, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [4]. - Trading Strategy: The 08 contract operates in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3580 - 3600 and the lower support at 3400 - 3420. The 09 contract follows the short - long and long - short strategy, with the short - term pressure at 3650 - 3680 and the support at 3500 - 3550. If the elimination in the third quarter is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].