生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to abundant supply and limited price fluctuations in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 17, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,190 lots today, with a holding of about 64,800 lots The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,060 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025 The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory The market has both bearish and bullish logics [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly The price difference between 150 - kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, supporting pig prices The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On July 17, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04% compared to the previous day Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease The main basis in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton or 37.04% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report tracks multiple data including national live pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing price in the recent 180 days, live pig main contract basis in Henan, 09 - 11 contract price difference, and 11 - 01 contract price difference [7][9][10]