Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-18 02:36Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (bullish) [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend. China strengthens its domestic cycle, Asian exports are strong, and the terminal demand is considered strong. Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September 2025 and accelerate rate - cuts in 2026. China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers [1] Summary by Related Information AI Investment - AI investment covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications. The global data center construction in computing power is booming, and in application fields such as AI agents, intelligent driving, and intelligent terminals, China has many globally competitive enterprises [1] Eurozone Government Bonds - As the US dollar's safe - haven status is questioned, central banks around the world are increasing their allocation of eurozone government bonds, and the subscription ratio in eurozone government bond issuance has risen from 16% last year to 20% so far this year [1] Central Bank Independence - After JPMorgan Chase's Dimon took the lead, executives from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup also voiced their support for the central bank's independent operation without White House intervention [1] Japanese Stock Market - With the upcoming Japanese election, Japan's $6.8 trillion stock market faces a "reckoning" moment. Polls suggest that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru may lose its majority in the Senate election this weekend [1] Stablecoin Business - JPMorgan Chase's CEO Dimon and Citigroup's CEO Fraser said they will participate in the stablecoin business, and JPMorgan needs to accept stablecoins to keep up with competitors [1] Tariffs and Inflation - New York Fed President Williams expects tariffs to add about one percentage point to inflation from the second half of 2025 to 2026, although the current comprehensive data shows only a relatively limited impact of tariffs [1] xAI's Expansion - Musk's xAI is looking to expand its infrastructure in the Middle East to power its computing - intensive AI models with the region's cheap energy, abundant capital, and political goodwill [1] Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump plans to impose tariffs slightly higher than 10% on at least 100 countries, including those in Africa and the Caribbean [1] Economic Data - The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index in June 2025 resumed expansion. Germany's industrial output in May 2025 increased by 1.2% month - on - month [1]