铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌区间偏弱-20250718

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For lead, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - For zinc, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation trend is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to weaken within a range. Consider shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The basis was - 145 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 27.85 dollars/ton, up 3.17 dollars/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 31,395 lots, down 3.74%. The open interest was 51,951 lots, down 2.73%. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.60, down 1.04% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 270,950 tons, with no change. Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 60,284 tons, up 3.78%. As of July 17, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 6.9 million tons, an increase of 0.79 million tons from July 10 and 0.56 million tons from July 14 [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment failure and maintenance last week, with a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, smelters have reduced or stopped production, and the inventory of secondary lead products is increasing. Demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may ease [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,040 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,130 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The basis was - 90 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 3.20 dollars/ton, up 5.75 dollars/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 77,512 lots, down 13.36%. The open interest was 67,223 lots, down 14.16%. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 1.15, up 0.93% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, with no change. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,563 tons, down 4.92%. As of July 17, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10 and 0.05 million tons from July 14 [1] Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The improvement in the tight supply of zinc concentrate is basically realized, and the production restrictions on smelters due to raw material shortages are weakened. The cost - side support is weakened, and smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, with an obvious trend of increasing production. Although downstream zinc ingot inventory has increased due to price - fixing at low points, the overall procurement is limited due to weak terminal demand [1]