巴西大豆丰产，油脂价格震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. Indonesia's plan to prepare the B50 program boosted market confidence, but the bumper harvest in South America exerted pressure on the market, resulting in an overall continuation of the oscillation [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,796.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +74 yuan and a幅度 of +0.85% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,072.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.37% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,440.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan and a幅度 of -0.32% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,830.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +40.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.46%, and the spot basis was P09 + 34.00, with a环比 change of -34.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,210.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +10.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, with a环比 change of -20.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan and a幅度 of -0.31%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 120.00, with a环比 change of +0.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazil - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) raised its production estimates for Brazilian soybean meal and soybean oil in 2025 - The estimated export revenue of the Brazilian soybean complex (grains, soybean meal, and soybean oil) in 2025 is 53.66 billion US dollars, compared to the May forecast of 53.38 billion US dollars - The estimated soybean production in Brazil in 2025 reached a record 169.7 million tons, unchanged from the June forecast - The estimated soybean processing volume in Brazil in 2025 was raised to 57.8 million tons, compared to the June forecast of 57.5 million tons - The estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in 2025 was raised to 109 million tons, compared to the June forecast of 108.2 million tons [2] United States - The net sales of US soybean exports in the 2024/2025 season were 272,000 tons, compared to 503,000 tons the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 530,000 tons, compared to 248,000 tons the previous week - The export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were 276,000 tons, compared to 396,000 tons the previous week - The net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week; the net sales of soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 22.478 million tons, the same as the previous week; the export shipments of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week - The cumulative shipments of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 22.478 million tons, the same as the previous week; the unshipped US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week; the unshipped US soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were 0 tons, the same as the previous week [2] Indonesia - An Indonesian energy department official said that Indonesia is studying how to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and the relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. Whether to implement B50 in 2026 has not been determined, and the government needs to calculate the demand for palm oil and the financial support plan [2]