美联储官员对于关税可能引发的通胀情况存在担忧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable, so it is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8] - Trump's tariff policy doesn't directly target silver, but Comex silver premium became strong due to the high premium of copper, so it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut rates "for some time" as tariff impacts are being passed on to consumer prices. A tight monetary policy is needed to control inflation expectations. The 4.1% unemployment rate shows a stable job market close to full employment, and inflation is above the 2% target and facing upward pressure from tariffs. US retail sales in June increased 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.1% [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 776.22 yuan/gram and closed at 776.28 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 776.74 yuan/gram, down 0.12% from the afternoon session [2] - On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,135.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,166.00 yuan/kg, up 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 906,865 lots, and the open interest was 438,247 lots. The night session closed at 9,204 yuan/kg, up 0.60% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, down 0.04% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.56%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 1,831 lots and the short position decreased by 794 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 488,279 lots, up 47.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 610 lots and the short position decreased by 340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,155,692 lots, up 15.74% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 948.50 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,694.95 tons, down 124.34 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.26 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -702.99 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.69, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.16, up 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 17, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d gold was 31,414 kg, up 16.05% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 281,830 kg, down 41.75% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,734 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 46,860 kg [7]