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FICC日报:ONE8月上半月价格沿用,运价继续高位徘徊-20250718
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-18 02:48

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the container shipping industry are currently at a high level and are expected to remain volatile. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level oscillation and game - based delivery situation, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - position allocation, and the 12 - month contract is affected by the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [3][4]. - The strategies include the main contract oscillating, an arbitrage strategy of going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 31st week is 1855/3110, and HPL's 8 - month first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 2235/3535 [1]. - Geopolitically, there has been "significant progress" in the Gaza cease - fire negotiations. The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance. Maersk will add two additional ships in August [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate is in high - level oscillation. The estimated average freight rate in the first half of August is about $3200/FEU. The final settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - 10 - month contract: It is a off - season contract, mainly for short - position allocation. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's pricing strategy will change due to the addition of two ships in August [4]. - 12 - month contract: The regular pattern of peak and off - season still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 17, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures is 84,091 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 80,457 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1485.70 and EC2508 at 2164.50 [5]. - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $2099/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is $2194/TEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is $4172/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1266.59 points [5][6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 5. Strategies and Risks - Strategies: The main contract oscillates. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - Risks: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected ship deliveries, insufficient ship idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain issues, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to ship detours [7].