宽松供需承压，聚焦天气政策与新季节奏

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean supply remains loose, with expected increased production and existing old - bean inventory pressure, while the demand side is weak. The uncertainty of import costs near the August 1 tariff node and the impact of international export agreements on market sentiment are the main influencing factors. Future changes in weather, policy effects, and international linkages in the production areas are worth noting [2] - The peanut futures main contract was oscillating and stable. The terminal inquiry atmosphere in the peanut spot market has warmed up, and the willingness of holders to hold prices has increased. The supply - side speculation due to uncertain weather in the production areas is heating up. However, the overall supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the inventory structure problem is prominent. The future market evolution will focus on weather, policies, and the new - season peanut listing rhythm [4] Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2509 contract yesterday was 4200.00 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan/ton or +0.50% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 100, down 21 from the previous day, a change of 32.14% [1] - Market Information: Soybean prices in the Northeast market remained stable yesterday. For example, the quoted price of standard first - class 39% protein medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Harbin, Heilongjiang was 2.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Strategy - Neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8250.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton or +0.22% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8700.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton or - 0.23% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 - 150.00, up 118.00 or +368.75% month - on - month [3] - Market Information: The domestic peanut market was oscillating and stable yesterday. Traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly consuming inventory or buying as they sold. The overall sales volume was slow. For example, the quoted price of Baisha common peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan was 4.35 - 4.45 yuan/jin [3] Strategy - Neutral [3]