燃料油日报：短期市场驱动有限，盘面窄幅波动-20250718

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].