黑色建材日报：成本持续推升，黑色再度上涨-20250718

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of steel continues to rise, leading to another increase in the black market. The fundamentals of steel have minor contradictions and are slightly better than the seasonal performance, with effective raw material support [1]. - The iron ore price is oscillating upward due to the recovery of hot metal production. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. - The first round of price increases for coking coal and coke has fully landed, and the prices are oscillating strongly. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises will increase, and attention should be paid to the demand in the off - season and the supply changes of coking coal [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal at the pithead is continuously shrinking, and the port coal price is oscillating strongly. In the short term, the price is strong due to rising demand, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, steel futures and spot prices showed a strong trend, with the hot - rolled coil futures main contract reaching a new high. The spot trading volume was 9.48 tons, and the basis continued to shrink [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the output of rebar decreased, demand weakened in the off - season, and inventory slightly increased. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand slightly increased. The fundamentals are slightly better than the seasonal performance, and raw material support is still effective [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated upward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise. The trading volume of national main port iron ore was 114.4 tons, a 14.40% increase, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot was 189.7 tons, a 24.80% increase. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, an increase of 0.43% [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, hot metal production recovered, and iron ore consumption showed good resilience. Port inventory slightly increased, and large - scale inventory slightly decreased. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated within a range. The first round of price increases for coke fully landed, the port clearance of imported coal slowly recovered, and inventory continued to decline [5]. Supply - Demand and Logic - For coke, production remained stable, inventory slightly decreased, and demand increased. Some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, but production enthusiasm will increase after the price increase. For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 is slow, and the supply is relatively insufficient. Steel mills still have rigid demand [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Others: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production area, some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the price of some coal types increased by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage, and the market coal price increased steadily. The high - calorie Australian coal price was inverted, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal had a cost - performance advantage [8]. Supply - Demand and Logic - In July, with the increase in temperature, the downstream daily consumption increased, and the demand strengthened. In the short term, the price is oscillating strongly, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Strategy No strategy information provided.