港口持续累库周期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, leading to significant pressure on Chinese imports and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The MTO plant in Xingxing has a pending maintenance plan, and attention should also be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry in traditional downstream sectors is in a seasonal off - season, the operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable, and the inland demand shows strong resilience. The inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant, resulting in a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report includes figures showing the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol spot in different regions against the main futures contract, and the inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][10][20]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures are presented for the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [24][25][29]. 3. Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory The report shows figures related to the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the overall operation rate of Chinese methanol production (including integrated plants) [32][33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences Figures are provided for various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [37][45][48]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55][57]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell short and hedge on the 09 contract when the price is high [3]. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when the spread is high [3]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided [3].