供应持续释放，猪价震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, the demand side lacks obvious short - term stimulus. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related purchases, sales, and storage, as well as the "anti - involution" policy, need to be monitored. Recent price increases were due to expected improvements after last month's weight reduction, and later supply - side slaughter changes and policy situations should be continuously monitored [2] - For the egg market, the current demand remains in the off - season normal state. Cold storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Although the plum rain season in southern sales areas is about to end, the post - poned Mid - Autumn Festival has limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,060 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.36%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: The ex - ternary live hog price in Henan was 14.30 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" on July 17 was 112.86, up 0.11 points from the previous day. The national average wholesale price of pork was 20.63 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 63.76 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.53 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; eggs were 7.06 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; and white - striped chickens were 17.29 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - With the expected increase in future supply, the spot price is likely to decline. In the seasonal consumption off - season, demand lacks short - term stimulus. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related purchases, sales, and storage and the "anti - involution" policy need attention. Recent price increases were due to expected improvements after weight reduction, and later supply - side slaughter changes and policy situations should be monitored [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3,595 yuan/500 kilograms, up 4 yuan (+0.11%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 2.69 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan. On July 17, the national production - link inventory was 0.53 days, down 0.16 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days, down 0.18 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand remains in the off - season normal state. Cold storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Although the plum rain season in southern sales areas is about to end, the post - poned Mid - Autumn Festival has limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] Strategy - Adopt a cautiously bearish strategy [5]