化工日报：雨水天气干扰，胶水价格坚挺-20250718

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent warming of the macro - atmosphere and rain disturbances in rubber main - producing areas have driven the continuous rebound of futures prices. With China in the seasonal import off - season in July and Thai processing plants still in a loss situation for shipping to Chinese ports, the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the end of semi - steel tire maintenance, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term as domestic butadiene supply has decreased slightly, port inventory has continued to decline, and the restart of downstream maintenance devices has boosted butadiene demand. With butadiene rubber in a loss situation, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continued rebound of butadiene rubber. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week as the number of maintenance devices decreases, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,585 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,710 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from the previous year [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, an 18.1% year - on - year increase and a 7.6% month - on - month increase. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a 10.8% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 15 yuan/ton (+35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 245 yuan/ton (+45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,694 yuan/ton (+89.97), the NR basis was 135 yuan/ton (+1), full - latex was 14,650 yuan/ton (+200), mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton (+120), 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), STR20 was quoted at 1,780 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene was 2,420 yuan/ton (+120) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 65.90 baht/kg (+0.25), Thai glue was 54.50 baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 48.55 baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.95 baht/kg (unchanged) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+1,811), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 95), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+100), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 977 yuan/ton (+90) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]