聚酯数据日报-20250718

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: With the improvement of commodity sentiment, PTA shows stronger performance under the contraction of supply. Although the polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, the actual polyester output hits a new high. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. PTA spot is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume increases, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units is postponed [2]. - MEG: Coal prices rise slightly, and commodity sentiment improves significantly. The later arrival volume of MEG is large. Polyester production and sales weaken, and polyester enters the maintenance cycle. The rapid rise of polyester prices shrinks the downstream weaving profit, and the terminal load drops significantly, which has a certain negative impact on the market. It is expected that North American ethane will arrive smoothly, and domestic devices will not be affected [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price decreased from 517.4 yuan/barrel on July 16, 2025, to 516.8 yuan/barrel on July 17, 2025, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA主力期价 rose from 4706 yuan/ton to 4714 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the spot price rose from 4720 yuan/ton to 4730 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased from 211.5 yuan/ton to 236 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.5 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased from 202.5 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.5 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from 11 to 24, an increase of 13; the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 40760 to 30866, a decrease of 9894 [2]. - MEG主力期价 rose from 4351 yuan/ton to 4372 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from -103.92 yuan/ton to -101.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4437 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the main basis decreased from 72 to 70, a decrease of 2 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate decreased from 78.98% to 78.32%, a decrease of 0.66%; PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.59%; MEG start - up rate decreased from 56.65% to 56.46%, a decrease of 0.19%; polyester load remained unchanged at 87.15% [2]. Polyester Product Situation - Among polyester filaments, the price of POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from -190 yuan/ton to -241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6815 yuan/ton to 6795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from -445 yuan/ton to -486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F decreased from 7890 yuan/ton to 7805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from -70 yuan/ton to -176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton. The long - filament production and sales decreased from 41% to 40%, a decrease of 1% [2]. - For polyester staple fibers, the price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6680 yuan/ton to 6635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the cash flow decreased from 270 yuan/ton to 204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton; the staple - fiber production and sales increased from 44% to 52%, an increase of 8% [2]. - In terms of polyester chips, the price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton; the chip cash flow decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton; the chip production and sales decreased from 63% to 56%, a decrease of 7% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].