贵金属数据日报-20250718

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: July 18, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Analyst: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Market Data Price and Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3334.99/ounce (-0.1% from the previous day), London Silver Spot at $37.88/ounce (0.0% change), COMEX Gold at $3340.80/ounce (-0.2% change), and COMEX Silver at $38.11/ounce (-0.2% change). Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding price changes [5]. - The price differences and ratios between different gold and silver varieties also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -2.24 yuan/gram on July 17, with a 14.3% change from the previous day [5]. Positions and Inventories - As of July 16, 2025, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver had different degrees of change compared to the previous day. Gold ETF - SPDR was at 950.79 tons (0.33% change), and Silver ETF - SLV was at 14819.28626 tons (-0.25% change) [5]. - On July 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28872.00 kg (0.00% change from the previous day), and SHFE silver inventory was 1217085.00 kg (0.35% change). COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight increases [5]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Market Indicators - On July 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.15 (-0.09% change). The US dollar index was 98.29 (-0.35% change), and US Treasury yields and other indicators also changed [5]. Group 3: Core Views Short - term Logic - The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and strong retail sales data weakened the short - term downward risk of the US economy, which put pressure on precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, precious metal prices were also supported. It is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate. For silver, although the market risk preference is still high, the silver price may gradually strengthen, and the gold - silver ratio may start to rise [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the background of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, the intensification of great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions on dips [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on the 12th that starting from August 1, a 30% tariff would be imposed on EU imported goods. The EU Commission stated on the 14th that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported products worth about $84 billion and has formulated a counter - measure list [5]. - Trump said he did not plan to remove Fed Chairman Powell from office. Fed official Williams said that the initial impact of tariffs on commodity prices was starting to be seen, and the impact on inflation was expected to intensify in the coming months [5]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000, a new low since the week ending April 12, 2025. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million, lower than expected [5].