Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Cautiously Bullish [7] Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal off - season is evident with falling downstream开工率 and production, but the social inventory accumulation is not smooth and at a low level. Macro - factors are temporarily favorable, and the smelting profit has expanded. If the price corrects due to inventory accumulation, it offers a chance to lay out long - term long positions. In the long run, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [3]. - Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the electrolytic aluminum plant raw material reserve end. The spot price is short - term strong, and although the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the in - transit volume can ease the delivery risk. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with the futures price following the aluminum price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, providing cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - On July 17, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with the spot premium rising 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,440 yuan/ton, with the spot premium rising 20 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,550 yuan/ton, with the spot premium rising 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,415 yuan/ton, closed at 20,415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,174 lots, an increase of 28,925 lots, and the open interest was 268,542 lots, an increase of 74,084 lots [1]. Aluminum Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 492,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 427,200 tons, an increase of 3,675 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina Spot - On July 17, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,170 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 17, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,100 yuan/ton, closed at 3,089 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 1.59% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 363,578 lots, an increase of 1,093 lots, and the open interest was 223,893 lots, a decrease of 15,471 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 17, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and that of mechanical primary aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 970 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 37,200 tons, a weekly increase of 5,800 tons; the in - plant inventory was 63,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons; the total inventory was 101,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,200 tons [2]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The seasonal off - season is obvious, with falling downstream开工率 and production, and processing fees facing losses. Social inventory shows a tendency to accumulate but not smoothly, and the absolute inventory level is at a record low. If the inventory accumulation does not exceed 600,000 tons, it is considered a positive factor. Macro - factors are favorable, and the smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season [3]. Alumina - In the spot market, there were transactions in Guangxi and overseas. The supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the electrolytic aluminum plant raw material reserve end. The spot price is short - term strong, and although the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the in - transit volume can ease the delivery risk. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the consumption off - season, with the futures price following the aluminum price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminum is tight, providing cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously Bullish; Alumina: Cautiously Bearish; Aluminum Alloy: Cautiously Bullish [7]. Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [7]
铝锭库存小幅回落,对铝价形成支撑
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-18 03:04