环球市场动态：内地低利率环境下的H股重估

Market Overview - A-shares rose on Thursday, with Nvidia-related stocks continuing strong performance; Hong Kong stocks showed mixed results with major indices fluctuating[3] - US retail sales in June exceeded expectations, contributing to a record high for the S&P 500 index[4] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% following strong retail sales data, while international gold prices fell by 0.4%[4] - International oil prices rose over 1% due to signs of tightening supply and increased US demand[4] Fixed Income Insights - US employment and consumer data remained robust, leading to stable movements in US Treasury bonds, with Asian bond markets showing a narrowing of spreads by 1-3 basis points[5] H-Shares Revaluation - The AH premium index has been declining since 2025, indicating a shift in mainland policies and a low-interest environment affecting H-shares[6] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have significantly increased since the "9.24" market, with a 50% share of holdings in the H-index from southbound and mainland investors[6] Sector Recommendations - Investment focus is recommended on sectors with significant industry trends and high earnings visibility, particularly in AI software, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and banking[6] Key Economic Indicators - US retail sales rebounded with a 0.6% month-on-month increase, and initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since mid-April[10] - The Federal Reserve is considering a 25 basis point rate cut, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the timing of such a move[31] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index showed slight declines of 0.08% and 0.56%, respectively, while the healthcare sector led gains with a 4.5% increase[12] - A-shares experienced a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.43%[16] Lithium Industry Outlook - A production halt in Qinghai's lithium salt lake due to regulatory compliance issues may lead to a tightening supply, potentially pushing lithium prices out of the bottom range[19] Global Market Indices - European markets rebounded with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.62%, driven by optimism surrounding trade negotiations and positive corporate earnings[10] - The S&P Mexico IPC index increased by 0.38%, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors[10]