Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial Silicon: Short - term watch [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in the long - term [6][8] 2. Report Core View - Industrial silicon's supply - demand pattern has improved due to low开工 of northwest and southwest factories and lower - than - usual production in the southwest, with reduced inventory. The overall commodity sentiment has a positive impact, but the influence of policies on the industrial silicon industry needs attention. For polysilicon, recent price increases are driven by policies and funds. Policy implementation and price transmission need to be monitored, and it is suitable for long - term low - level long - position layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On July 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,750 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous settlement. The main contract's open interest was 381,048 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, an increase of 142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,800 yuan/ton this week, while the prices of other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable. The market's mainstream transaction center was around 10,800 yuan/ton. Although the low - price quotes in the domestic market increased slightly, the matching degree of transactions decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory [2]. - Strategy - Short - term watch, and short - position holders should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On July 17, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 43,900 yuan/ton and closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, a 7.49% increase from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 70,964 lots (71,783 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 410,795 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 36.60 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.80 yuan/kg), dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 44.50 - 49.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.25 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 GW, a decrease of 5.70%. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 5.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.10 GW, a decrease of 3.37% [4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.25 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.67 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.32 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.28 yuan/piece) [4]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. - Strategy - In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions when the price is low. In the short - term, be cautiously bullish [6][8].
新能源及有色金属日报：多晶硅盘面持续大涨，需关注近月减仓引发波动-20250718
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-18 03:22