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新能源及有色金属日报:下游观望情绪仍然较重,铅价震荡下行-20250718
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-18 03:18

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy:暂缓 (No English equivalent provided in the context, so kept as is) [4] 2. Core View - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price is oscillating downward. The domestic ore supply is relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious. The overall weakness of the non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. For now, the operation should be mainly high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Spot: On July 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.02/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. Different regions' lead spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] - Futures: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,395 lots, down 1,219 lots, and the position was 51,951 lots, down 1,456 lots. At night, it closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the afternoon close. The lead price has been weak, and downstream procurement is cautious [2] - Inventory: On July 17, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from last week. As of July 17, the LME lead inventory was 270,950 tons, a change of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Absolute price: Keep a neutral view. Due to the tight domestic ore supply, unclear peak - season demand, and the weak non - ferrous sector, the current operation should be high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [4] - Option strategy: Postpone [4]