现货成交相对有限，铜价仍陷震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Suspended 2. Core View of the Report This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in the copper price in non - US markets. As a result, the domestic copper price was temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for now [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, a - 0.18% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,800 yuan/ton and closed at 77,620 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 60 - 150 yuan/ton to the current 2508 contract, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 77,950 - 78,090 yuan/ton. The intraday trading weakened, and the spot premium may further decline today [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumer prices. The US unemployment rate is 4.1%, and inflation is above the 2% target [3]. - Economic Data: US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.1% [3]. - Mine End: In the second quarter of 2025, Rio Tinto's copper production reached 229,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 9% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company maintained its annual production target of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [4]. - Smelting and Import: In the second quarter, 29Metals' Golden Grove project in Western Australia produced 5,600 tons of copper, lower than the previous year. China's refined copper production in June 2025 was 1.302 million tons, a 14.2% year - on - year increase [5]. - Consumption: China's copper product output in June 2025 was 2.214 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 10,525 tons to 122,150 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 8,103 tons to 42,139 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Table of Copper Price and Basis Data - Spot (Premium and Discount): The premium of SMM 1 copper on July 18, 2025, was 105, with changes compared to the previous day, week, and month [26]. - Inventory: LME inventory was 122,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 81,462 tons, and COMEX inventory was 217,212 tons on July 18, 2025 [27]. - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE warehouse receipts were 42,139 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 10.19% on July 18, 2025 [28]. - Arbitrage: The import profit was - 2 on July 18, 2025, and there were also data on other arbitrage indicators [28].